Beware the Ides of March

So much is happening right now.

More chaos and confusion, and I felt a bit defeated with the Senate vote yesterday, and then hours later the Executive Order to dismantle seven more agencies, including the Institute of Museum and Library Services. It’s not even a federal agency, but an independent one, and I am so tired of the abject absence of the rule of law and also of basic common sense about government. Common decency has been lacking for some time, but the sense of dim-wittedness is exhausting. 

And then today we had actual military strikes, as though domestic tornadoes, wildfires, and severe storms weren’t enough. 

Beware the Ides of March, dear Reader. 

The can be only one answer

“There can be only one answer, and that is: Keep going. Keep supporting Ukraine, keep delivering weapons, keep working on accountability, keep working on humanitarian aid.”
                          ---- Dutch Foreign Minister Wopke Hoekstra

InadvertentResearch: Wheat

Let's talk about wheat.

The war in Ukraine put a drastic shortage on wheat in Europe. Ukraine is one of Europe’s largest wheat exporters. Drought in the United States left the winter wheat crops in a deplorable state. The U.S. Department of Agriculture said 30% of U.S. winter wheat was in good or excellent condition as of April 3, well below the trade expectation for 40% and the year-ago 53%. That was the agency’s first national assessment of wheat conditions since late November.

Crop health has rarely been this poor in early April. Only 27% of winter wheat in 1996 was good or excellent within the first 10 days of the month, and 2018 was close behind with 31%. Final yields were poor in 2018 but terrible in 1996.

Winter wheat production represents approximately 70 percent of total U.S. production, on average. US farmers planted 34.4 million acres of winter wheat for 2022, the most in six years (USDA, January). However, most of the Plains breadbasket is in the grip of a drought that is expected to persist through April, according to the latest seasonal outlook from the U.S. Climate Prediction Center. April rain, the most important element in a successful wheat crop for US production, was less than needed. Despite the increased planting, in May the USDA forecast an 8% reduction in output from 2021.

Globally, the wheat situation is bad everywhere except Russia. Ukrainian production is diminished and what is produced will be unavailable for export due to war. India has faced such a heat wave that crops are damaged, leading the country to forgo exports altogether, keeping such wheat as they can produce for domestic use. The USDA expects total world wheat production will decline 0.6% in 2022/23, with a 35% drop in Ukraine accounting for the biggest shortfall. Wheat crops in other countries are suffering from drought, including Morocco, where production is projected to be down 70%. As a result, the agency lowered its projection for world wheat ending stocks by 5% , the lowest level in six years.

All of this has pushed wheat futures soaring. Chicago futures for wheat are nearly double what they were in July.

Americans eat an amazing amount of wheat, even if they don’t realize it. Cookies, bread, noodles, you name it, wheat is on the menu nearly every meal, and definitely the backbone of snacks and desserts. The U.S., once the bread basket to the world, has been importing wheat to make up its shortfall over the past decade. As we go into the 2022/2023 year, the May report of the US Wheat Associates shows beginning stocks are down, production is expected to be down to decade lows, and consumption shows no sign of decline. Further weather fluctuations could imperil the reduced projections. Our staple food could get very expensive very fast.

Lest we forget

"Nothing is more barbarous than war. Nothing is more cruel ... Nothing is more pitiful than a nation being swept along by fools." 

~ Daisaku Ikeda 

 Choose Peace

A strange morning

Last night the thunderstorm woke me up at ten or so - I lay there for a good bit before caring what time it was.

Then I decided to see what was on the stage at my new favorite venue, #OccupyLafayetteSquare. I had heard there might be opera singers and bagpipes, and I wondered if it would be one act or two, and who would open for whom. Sure enough, the scene was rocking the (White) House when I checked in, with the crowd going wild. Apparently Our Dear Leader (ODL) was just walking in, and the people greeted him with the exuberance for which America is known. "Lock him up!" They repeated the cries with dedication and singleness of heart. It was impressive, and, more importantly, it seems to have been heard. Within an hour or so, an All caps missile was fired by ODL, targeting Iran and swooping toward war in 280 characters or less.

I thought it might be the a fake, so I ventured out to the internet only to find that a man shot 14 people in Toronto and that people are dying in Japan of the heat. This seemed proof that perhaps I was dreaming, and I decided to go back to sleep.

This morning it's all still there.

Doomsday looms

The closest ever, and just getting closer.

Three minutes to midnight was too many last week.
This week, one can only wonder if that's padded with sixty extra seconds of optimism.
Hint: When Trump advised folks to "Go Nuclear," he wasn't making a reference to Iran. Yet.