Crisis of Confidence: the climate edition

On July 15, 1979, Carter said in his “Crisis of Confidence” speech:

“The energy crisis is real. It is worldwide. It is a clear and present danger to our nation. These are facts and we simply must face them … I am tonight setting a clear goal for the energy policy of the United States…. I will soon submit legislation to Congress calling for the creation of this nation’s first solar bank, which will help us achieve the crucial goal of 20% of our energy coming from solar power by the year 2000… To give us energy security, I am asking for the most massive peacetime commitment of funds and resources in our nation’s history to develop America’s own alternative sources of fuel — from coal, from oil shale, from plant products for gasohol, from unconventional gas, from the sun… I will urge Congress to create an energy mobilization board which … will have the responsibility and authority to cut through the red tape, the delays, and the endless roadblocks to completing key energy projects. We will protect our environment…. I’m proposing a bold conservation program to involve every state, county, and city and every average American in our energy battle. This effort will permit you to build conservation into your homes and your lives at a cost you can afford…. Every act of energy conservation like this is more than just common sense — I tell you it is an act of patriotism.” 

When the Reagan administration removed the solar panels in 1986, Reagan’s Chief of Staff commented that, “he felt the equipment was just a joke.” 

Still Uncool

The ocean surface temperature went into new territory in April, just as it was supposed to be entering a cooling phase. This was concerning then, and even though the temperatures are down, they are still markedly up, continuing along in record temperatures.

Wherever your hills are, now might be a good time to run to them.

Save a Life. Open a library.

In his book Heat Wave: A Social Autopsy of Disaster in Chicago, Eric Klinenberg found that having social infrastructure in place was a life-saving mitigation, lowering the risk of death by 80 percent in the heat wave of 1995, the equivalent of having an air conditioner versus not having one. 

In the US, heat kills more Americans than any other weather-related disaster, and the climate crisis has been making these extreme events more deadly. Heat deaths have outpaced hurricane deaths in the country by more than 8-to-1 over the past decade, according to data tracked by the National Weather Service.

The evidence shows that social infrastructure is the most relevant and effective population-wide solution politicians can make. When social infrastructure intersects, such as with public libraries and public transportation, the effects are synergistic.

Public policy can improve lives, and evidence increasingly shows that public policy can save lives. It's time politicians declared a state of emergency and marshalled their policies to create, expand, and maintain as robust a social infrastructure as possible. 

Don't Move. Don't Even Breathe.

The air tastes like smoke and a few minutes outside left my tongue and throat thick with it. If this is the red zone, I can't imagine how awfult the purple and maroon zones are. 

Otherwise, it's a perfectly beautiful summer day, 83 with relatively low humidity, just perfect for picnics and parks and hikes in our beuatiful mountains. I was really looking forward to the walk to pick up the milk delivery for the week, happy that after a fortnight of drenching rain, we had some sunshine. I have yoga at the museum this evening. 

Of course I picked up the milk, but the decision to walk to the museum and do yoga on the roof is more tenuous. The walk might do more harm than the yoga class helps.

Stay safe, friends.

Uncool

Y'all.

The southern oceans aren't cooling the way they usually do.

Little Margin for Error

Changing weather patterns, the ineffectiveness of medieval governments in dealing with crises, and population level at a historical high made it a time with little margin for error in food production. 

Factors in the Great Famine	Current Factors
Anomaly: Warm Climate Massive crop failure (1315-1317, 5-12% dead) Extreme weather Flooding Class Warfare Increased Crime Inflation Epidemic Disease  Lifespan reduction (from 29.84 years in 1301-1325 to 17.33 years in 1348-1375.)	Anomaly: Heat wave Heat related death Burned crops Sacrificed livestock Extreme weather Flooding Class Warfare Increased Crime Inflation Epidemic Disease Lifespan reduction Social unrest and disruption Schools Hospitals Labor Climate Anomaly: Drought Rivers dry up and goods can’t get where they’re going Hydroelectric production compromised Supply Chain breakdown Climate

The Great Famine of 1315–1317 (occasionally dated 1315–1322) was the first of a series of large-scale crises that struck Europe early in the 14th century. Most of Europe (extending east to Russia and south to Italy) was affected. The famine caused many deaths over an extended number of years and marked a clear end to the period of growth and prosperity from the 11th to the 13th centuries.

30 Seconds Closer to Caratrophe

Scientists said we are thirty seconds closer to catastrophe today, moving the hands of the Doomsday clock up to two minutes to midnight, the closest the Clock has ever been to Doomsday, and as close as it was in 1953, at the height of the Cold War.

the reality of a nuclear-armed President Trump running loose in the world is worse than we feared, and that is clearly a central factor in this decision. ---- Derek Johnson

Extreme weather and Virginia

Below is a table of tornadoes that have been spawned by extreme weather events and the location of the tornadoes. I was here for many of the Virginia events, and was on front quad during Hugo.

Climate Change and Your Health

There's a new study going around, analyzing how climate change will affect health issues. Please note that every sector of the country has the icon indicating an impact to the mental health and well being of residents. Every single American is going to face increased pressure to their mental health and well being as a direct result of climate change. It's too late to do anything about the Boomer impact on the environment, but it's a great time to start developing your mental health tool kit. The good news is that a lot of what we can do to become more resilient is absolutely free and easy:

• Meditate
• Practice Mindfulness
• Start a gratitude journal
• Simplify

You'll be happy you did.

Climate change

http://www.space.com/22965-climate-change-impact-nasa-s-21st-century-predictions-video.html

The next 85 years

20 Meters

Look, I'm not trying to be dramatic. But even if nothing out of the ordinary happened, in 60 years, we will see dramatic flooding of the Atlantic seaboard.

Now imagine one good hurricane with landfall and storm surge of 30 feet.
http://geology.com/s...ashington.shtml

Sea levels

Sea levels are rising fast, and tidal communities are routinely being flooded. This isn't going away and will only get worse before it gets better, if it ever does get better.

And it's hotter than ever. While the east coast is seeing flooding in Norfolk, Charleston and Miami Beach, California is seeing record highs, with drought conditions spreading through the state.

Maybe it's time to buy a farm and grow some food.