Uncertainty is a feature, not a bug.

• fear of trade wars, and bankruptcies, job cuts soared in February 
• hiring activity in the US private sector slumped in February.
• Tariff imposition with 24 hours notice
• Tariffs on hold, but only for 30 days, and only for certain sectors, and only for certain countries.
• Sweeping layoffs
• Desperate lurching (re)hiring

The whole thing is a spinning blender of chaos and favoritism that masks the illegality of it all, and keeps our attention on survival.

It's a Constitutional Crisis. 

It's a coup.

Fear is driving the economy in the United States, while consumers--whose spending makes up two-thirds of the economy--are voicing their opinion on the matter by holding no-spend blackout days and participating in weeks-long boycotts targeting specific companies that they think are unjust, such as Amazon and Target. 

Beyond "Growthism"

The UN General Assembly released a report calling for a human rights-driven economy, and I'm here for this.

Moving from an economy driven by the search for maximizing profits to a human rights

economy is possible and, to remain within planetary boundaries, necessary.

Describing the current economy as centered on a "growthism" model,  Special Rapporteur on extreme poverty and human rights, Olivier De Schutter, essentially says that capitalism is a crime against humanity, echoing the cries of GenX and everyone after.

Information Ecology

An information ecology is “a system of people, practices, values, and technologies in a particular local environment.” (Nardi & O’Day, 1999) I’d like to highlight two words from this, the first being system and the second being local. For the purposes of my research, the local-ness of the system is key, and I think it’s really important not to lose sight of how each library differs because of its governing locality. Even if two libraries were identical in all other ways, being on opposite sides of town would change their information ecology just by changing the populations they serve. In reality, no two libraries are identical, and existing “on the other side of town” can create differences in the ecology that have dramatic differences in the services that are provided. For instance, if all libraries in a city or consortium are funded equally from the budget, but one has three times the square footage of the other, the utility bills alone of the larger library could leave the programs, services, and staffing budget decimated. If the libraries are funded by square footage, smaller libraries who serve just as many patrons can find themselves spread thin when trying to address the community needs. If libraries are funded based on property tax contributions, libraries in poorer sections of town can have dramatically reduced budgets compared to wealthy neighborhoods, an inverse of the typical use patterns in libraries and one which re-presents wealth inequality as inequalities of service. The previous examples are all about budgets, but there are other municipal factors as well: A gorgeous new library with all the latest technology and programming services and an eye-popping collection of materials for all ages isn’t of much use if it’s stuck out on the edge of town without access from public transportation. This is exactly the situation of the crown jewel library in my town, a gorgeous building with a phenomenal collection -- it even has a coffee bar and a 3D printer. It’s amazing, and one of the most inviting spaces in the whole city. One of the reasons planners were able to spend all this money on the building and holdings was that the land that they found to build on was on the far edge of town, not even in the city limits; land in the city is expensive, when it can be found at all; the price goes down and availability goes up as you move away from the town center, so several acres over the county line seemed worth every penny. The County library is a 20 minute drive from the center of downtown; to take a Lyft or Uber would be upwards of $20 one way. 

And if you ask librarians to name the single greatest constraining factor for their particular branch library, school library, law library, or practically any other information services organization, they'll often say space. Information materials take space on shelves; computer labs and meeting rooms and coffee bars and viewing rooms take space for the patrons. And it’s all necessary for a library to work. So when the plans were rolled out for a large building with beautiful windows and expansive grounds and plenty of space, no one said “but it’s not on the bus line.” But, as a consequence, the availability of the best library for 50 miles in any direction is that it is unavailable for most of the library patrons in the city; it’s remote enough that it might as well be on the moon for those who would be most served. 

    One of the things I find interesting is how this simple difference has skewed the informational landscape in the city. The County library doesn’t only have a 3D printer and movie theater viewing room that the city libraries couldn’t dream of having; it also has passport services available, a notary, hosts a mobile DMV clinic every week, and serves as a voting location during elections. None of these essential civic functions that the County library provides are restricted by space, but somehow the City libraries don’t offer these services, making the libraries in the City far less civic and diminishing the overall opportunities for civic engagement for city-neighborhood patrons. This small thing -- being available on the bus line -- has an enormous impact on the information ecology for the City and its residents.

Smart Money is on Smart Homes

Ottawa, Feb. 14, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The smart home market size was estimated at USD 80.45 billion in 2022. Growing customer need for simplicity and a tailored experience, rising consumer awareness of safety and security, and expanding use of cloud-based technologies are key market drivers.

Key highlights

The home healthcare segment is growing at the highest CAGR of over 31% during the forecast period.

The wired protocols segment is growing at a CAGR of over 26%.

The Asia Pacific region is poised to grow at a CAGR of over 31% over the forecast period from 2022 to 2030.

The Europe smart home industry is growing at a CAGR of around 24% over the forecast period from 2022 to 2030.

Get the sample copy of this report@ https://www.precedenceresearch.com/sample/2596

InadvertentResearch: Corn

Today's InadvertentResearch™️ is on corn. (Last week was wheat, and the week before was gasoline, and I don't mean to be like this; I can't help it). Corn futures are setting historic prices, and while I don't use corn much at all, it's in everything that comes off the shelves. It also has a huge impact on beef prices at the grocery store. Taken along with rising gasoline/shipping costs, this could mean that the spike in food prices is just getting started. [Most people who "pay attention to market forces" look at the DJIA; I watch corn, wheat, gold, and oil. I don't know why. I have been fascinated by this since I was a kid and read Little House on the Prairie.]

Anyway, beef and tortillas might be affected. I hope not. Who doesn't love a nice steak fajita in August?

InadvertentResearch: Wheat

Let's talk about wheat.

The war in Ukraine put a drastic shortage on wheat in Europe. Ukraine is one of Europe’s largest wheat exporters. Drought in the United States left the winter wheat crops in a deplorable state. The U.S. Department of Agriculture said 30% of U.S. winter wheat was in good or excellent condition as of April 3, well below the trade expectation for 40% and the year-ago 53%. That was the agency’s first national assessment of wheat conditions since late November.

Crop health has rarely been this poor in early April. Only 27% of winter wheat in 1996 was good or excellent within the first 10 days of the month, and 2018 was close behind with 31%. Final yields were poor in 2018 but terrible in 1996.

Winter wheat production represents approximately 70 percent of total U.S. production, on average. US farmers planted 34.4 million acres of winter wheat for 2022, the most in six years (USDA, January). However, most of the Plains breadbasket is in the grip of a drought that is expected to persist through April, according to the latest seasonal outlook from the U.S. Climate Prediction Center. April rain, the most important element in a successful wheat crop for US production, was less than needed. Despite the increased planting, in May the USDA forecast an 8% reduction in output from 2021.

Globally, the wheat situation is bad everywhere except Russia. Ukrainian production is diminished and what is produced will be unavailable for export due to war. India has faced such a heat wave that crops are damaged, leading the country to forgo exports altogether, keeping such wheat as they can produce for domestic use. The USDA expects total world wheat production will decline 0.6% in 2022/23, with a 35% drop in Ukraine accounting for the biggest shortfall. Wheat crops in other countries are suffering from drought, including Morocco, where production is projected to be down 70%. As a result, the agency lowered its projection for world wheat ending stocks by 5% , the lowest level in six years.

All of this has pushed wheat futures soaring. Chicago futures for wheat are nearly double what they were in July.

Americans eat an amazing amount of wheat, even if they don’t realize it. Cookies, bread, noodles, you name it, wheat is on the menu nearly every meal, and definitely the backbone of snacks and desserts. The U.S., once the bread basket to the world, has been importing wheat to make up its shortfall over the past decade. As we go into the 2022/2023 year, the May report of the US Wheat Associates shows beginning stocks are down, production is expected to be down to decade lows, and consumption shows no sign of decline. Further weather fluctuations could imperil the reduced projections. Our staple food could get very expensive very fast.

Uranus in Taurus

In 2018, the full Milk Moon occurs at the same time as an astrological event 84 years in the making: the shift of Uranus to Taurus. Uranus has been in Aries since March 2011, and the planet known for Revolution has certainly reformed what we think of as the collective Identity and the Self, and perhaps there have been major renovations, breakdowns and breakthroughs in the past seven years personally as well. In the United States, we have certainly seen much of the Aries energy of the people, with the last seven years giving us the Tea Party and the Progressives, cracking open the American political landscape. The AstroTwins wrote,

"Aries is the zodiac’s warrior, Uranus is the populist sign that’s “down for the people.” While this can be a time of massive and beneficial government reforms, we also need to monitor candidates closely. Militarists and dictators in revolutionary’s clothing can sneak in the back door, playing into people’s raw anger (an emotion that is the Achilles’ Heel for both Aries and Uranus)." 

Indeed. Individuals coming together for a rallying cry, demanding societal change as a response to their collective anger and outrage, have been a hallmark of the last seven years, from Black Lives Matter to Me Too to Never Again. Hashtag activism is real, and it produces results in a way unimaginable eight years ago.

When Uranus was last in Taurus, 1934-1942, we had deep financial Depression, the collapse of the economic landscape, and the ultimate culmination in World War II. Keep an eye on technological advancements as well, as Uranus loves to throw new inventions into the mix as a way to usher in revolution and reform.

For my part, I'm also looking at the messages from Uranus in Aries about the climate: As Uranus left the waterworld of Pisces in 2010, we had the BP oil explosion, then in Aries we saw the hottest years on record, with dramatic advances in global warming and climate chaos. Thinking of a more earthy analog to our climate and what it needs, Taurus leaves me contemplating what revelations and revolutions might occur in the food systems and security as well as the financial realm. 

The Intentional Promotion of the Things We Value

Minimalism is the intentional promotion of the things we most value and the removal of everything that distracts us from it. It requires a conscious decision because it is a countercultural lifestyle that stands against the culture of overconsumption that surrounds us.

The world we live in is not friendly to the pursuit of minimalism. Its tendencies and relentless advertising campaigns call us to acquire more, better, faster, and newer. The journey of finding simplicity requires consistent inspiration.

For that reason, I hope you will make an effort this weekend to find a quiet moment with a cup of coffee or tea and enjoy some of these hand-picked articles to encourage more simplicity in your life.

The White Envelope by Nancy W. Gavin. This inspirational story needs to be read and shared a million times.

7 Simple Strategies to Avoid Overspending this Holiday Season | Forbes. Americans spend 9X the amount of money retail shopping during the Christmas season than any other season of the year.

My Year of No Spending is Over—Here’s How I Got Through It | The Guardian by Michelle McGagh. A new way of living - wealthier and wiser.

Minimalism, Marriage, and Parenting | YouTube (42:57) by Mina Irfan.

http://www.becomingminimalist.com/inspiring-simplicity-1216-2/

It's time to raise the minimum wage

Debt

On average, total consumer debt accounts for 37% of annual income -- but it accounts for 57% of annual income among those with student loans.

Knight-Hennessey Scholars

Philip Knight donated $400M to created a scholarship program to addressable world's ills, including poverty.

Maybe their first recommendations will be to disallow child labor sweatshops for running shoes.

Full employment and the new economy

A full-employment vision for the twenty-first century can and must look different from the full-employment realities of the postwar era. Nor is the call for full employment necessarily bound up with assumptions about the virtues of work and the vices of idleness.

At the end of The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money, John Maynard Keynes surveyed the dire political-economic scene of the mid-1930s and summed it up in a single, incisive phrase: “The outstanding faults of the economic society in which we live are its failure to provide for full employment and its arbitrary and inequitable distribution of wealth and incomes.”

Consider a snapshot of the situation young people face: the unemployment rate for workers under age 25 is 18.1 percent; unemployment for black people who have not graduated from high school is 82.5 percent; the people most likely to be shot by police are black 25–34-year-olds; the national student loan debt has surpassed $1 trillion; and the only jobs lucrative enough to pay off college loans are in the financial industry that detonated our economy or Silicon Valley companies deregulating working-class industries.

The future doesn’t hold much hope either, with median household income declining 12.4 percent between 2000 and 2011. Having a family is simply harder to afford now. Meanwhile, each new year sets another low record for union density, meaning we have few levers for turning those income numbers around. Unlike most wealthy countries, the United States lacks universal childcare and maternity leave, so women are stuck with the same old debates over an impossible work-life balance.

This is an age when the power of the boss is so ascendant over the power of the worker that we can be shuffled around to match precisely the needs of capital. Department stores and retailers now use apps that will inform an employee midway through a workday if their services are no longer needed to match customer demand. About half of early-career hourly workers learn their schedule for the week less than one week in advance. A full day’s work, or a “steady” job, is a thing of the past. This is a chronically unstable way to operate in the world, picking up bits of knowledge work, service work, or manual labor as needed.

Water is not Optional

Water scarcity is listed as a global threat behind only climate change and terrorism.

All For One

And in in five weeks or so, the One Percent will have more wealth than all of the rest of humanity combined. How to know if you qualify for this elite group?

The average wealth of the global one percent is $2.7 million, but given the staggering wealth of the very wealthiest, that means that it takes much less than that to qualify.

Stuck Between the Me Generation and the Not You Generation

Alexa von Tobel seems to think Millennials created the on-click, streaming universe in which they swim so well.

Fiftysomethings now enjoy bingeing on Netflix, texting that they’re running late and trolling Facebook as much as their kids do. “It’s beyond the tipping point,” says von Tobel of her generation. “[We] are the decision makers, the influencers.”

Bitch, please.

Do you have any clue that when the first of your generation was being conceived, your Gen X cynical, detached, risk-taking parents-to-be were rejecting the hyper-traditional model being forced upon us by our resource-pillaging, nostalgia-laden, responsibility-adverse Boomer parents who were crafting a stricter, more conventional climate than any we had seen in this country as the Hippies-turned-Yuppies--who once rallied behind the call to trust no one over thirty--set themselves up as The Authority on Everything(tm), especially morals? The Reagan years made McCarthyism look tolerant: at least it only cared about your political affiliation.

We of Gen X, born between the assassination of JFK and the election of Reagan, were the first to have no hope of achieving a standard of living of our parents, and we knew it long before we graduated from increasingly defunded schools where ketchup was a vegetable and arts were too expensive, trying to find work despite two million jobs being shipped overseas during the bust of American Manufacturing. When we got accepted to college, the tuition was out of sight, and we didn't qualify for loans on our own - our parent's income(s) were the basis for determining need until we were 24 or made $8,000 in a calendar year, more than we could gross at $3.35 minimum wage, even if we worked 40 hours a week.

The Millennial Generation needs to stop being impressed with itself. You are are really cool, and we love you, except for when you tell us how cool and loveable and hip you are.

Gen X created Netflix - a DVD by mail service - to accommodate our transient and erratic lives. We worked weird hours, whenever we could get them, and frequently had more than one job. We didn't have time to participate in a brick-and-mortar schedule, and we were often spending more on late fees than we did on rentals, with little time to watch a show.

We created PayPal, Google, and Amazon and had web logs crafted by hand before Steve Jobs got hired back to Apple to make an iPod or Mark Zuckerberg got dumped. We truly dig that you have embraced the digital universe into which you were born, but please stop being so impressed with yourselves. We made it up out of thin air, because we had nothing to lose.

Economic indicators

Since mid - April, oil prices are up nearly 25 percent per barrel, hitting eighteen month highs.
The recent heat wave in the Midwest from Minnesota to Oklahoma has caused a flash drought in the Farm Belt, sending corn prices up.

Taken together, this leads to higher prices at the supermarkets in the next few months, as well as at the gas pump. Consumers, already feeling the pinch from sequestration, are likely to pull back even further if gas and food prices climb overly much. So far this quarter, only durable goods have been hurt by thigh tightened wallets, but should consumers start cutting into the service sector, the cyclic wheel of recession will pick up more speed.

The housing market, still on shaky ground at best since 2008, has taken it on the chin this summer as we.

The Union of the United States of America

Last night I ran across a rant about people buying steak and lobster with food stamps. This was my response. [Apparently I vented my spleen on someone else's post, something I usually don't do. Apologies to Tree, and many thanks to her for bringing the whole situation to my attention, since I clearly needed to get this out of my system.]

Now, I have never been on food stamps, so some people will say I don't have a right to an opinion; that has never stopped me before, so feel free not to read on if you think I'm out of line.
Basically I would rather see them spend it on steak and lobster to celebrate than on junk food. Call me crazy, but wholesome food is a good thing for tax dollars to buy. In European countries, the real first world, families are given a stipend to help support young children; health care and education are free and available; daycare is subsidized. These are not perks or entitlements; this is a country that ensures the well-being of its citizens, which, if you think for a minute, is the Prime Directive of government. There is no excuse for belittling someone for paying for food. Other people need to sit down and shut up and reconsider why their noses are out of joint.
If I had my way, we would have thirty hour work weeks (including lunch, not excluding it) and six weeks of vacation for everyone. Infants would be subsidized at one-half the poverty level each year from birth until five (yes! Each and every one of them!). Minimum wage would be determined by the poverty rate, which would reflect the real cost of basic food and housing and gasoline, so that if you work a minimum wage job you can support a family [PovertyRate/1500=MinimuWage; it's not rocket science here]. Public schools and libraries would be palaces and teachers, librarians and police/emergency responders/military would be amongst the highest paid professions. Why? Because our citizens deserve to be through with worrying about bread and shoes and need to focus on learning, have time to be creative, and focus on being whole with themselves and their families.
Don't tell me we can't afford it. We spend more bickering with each other than other countries do on being decent. And this is The United States of America. We have every reason to expect to be able to hold our heads high as the wealthiest is the world.
If you think taxes are class warfare, you are absolutely right. Our founding fathers levied huge taxes on the wealthy, and plundered the hoard reflected in large estates with good reason - they were deliberately undermining the ability to create and maintain an aristocracy, for they knew first hand the evils it causes and brings. And most of them were not the poor huddled masses but were quite wealthy themselves. It was a matter of understanding that in this New World, no one would be hungry. No one. Not because of race, color, creed, or gender. Adams, Jefferson, Washington, Hamilton and Henry knew from the inside of the upper class the wrongs and dangers of allowing the very rich to sneer at the very poor, and there is only one way to ensure the basic necessities are not trampled: do away with the lower class altogether; dismantle extreme unearned wealth of inheritance; throw open the lanes of access to all that life has to offer; let the only dividing line amongst citizens be a matter of brains and hard work. Never would they have imagined the way we have mucked it all up. It is about what you do once your access is unfettered - a citizenry with no excuses would be an amazing sight to behold, a beacon to the rest of the world, and we are betraying their vision by impeding anyone from basic necessities.
Please feel free to send this to those who want to marginalize the citizens of the United States. I wonder why some people cry so loudly against taking care of our own.

Today's news by the Federal Reserve sparked a buying surge in the markets; the Dow Jones Industrial Index climbed 490 points by the end of the day, up nearly 4.25 percent and, more importantly, breaking the 12,000 mark. The real reason for the Fed's action has to do with the TED Spread, the difference between the interest rates on interbank loans and on short-term U.S. government debt ("T-bills"). In a normal economy, this rate is in the teens, sometimes getting as high as the lower twenties. But in early August, something happened and the TED Spread spiked five points to the mid-twenties; it has continued a steady climb since then, crossing the 50 mark this week. For some perspective, the TED Spread crossed into the mid-twenties in March 2007 and crossed the 50 point in late May; steps were taken to ease the flow of money between banks then, too, but even so the rate only fell to the high-thirties before resuming its climb with even greater vigor.

Why is this important? Those of us reading this don't really lend money to banks, right? Well, yes and no. By having your money in a bank, you are providing the capital not only to pay your own loans, but also the capital to create new loans. This has always sounded like a Ponzi scheme to me, but in theory the banks are paying us for the privilege of using our money in the form of the interest we gain on our cash balances.

Here's the problem. We don't have much interest being generated by our cash balances. As pathetic as the current rate of US Saving Bonds is (0.60% today), they are still a better return than at a big bank (0.50% at Bank of America for Virginia today). With paper savings bonds not being available any more through our lending institutions, they can only be purchased electronically directly through the treasury. This means they are more difficult to counterfeit and can't be lost, as paper bonds could, but it's also a real pain to buy.

At this rate, it's difficult to understand the argument against keeping one's money in a mattress, and that's bad news for banks, but also bad news for the government in general who relies upon the well-oiled functioning of the banking industry. The good news is that you can skip the banks and make more money buy buying bonds.

We'll check in on the overall status of the TED Spread in a few months.

Data Worm Weekly - 16

My horoscope this week:
This is a high pressure week for the Aries Ram. You could have a list of must-do’s as long as your arm or out of nowhere people are making demands on you, albeit for the best of reasons. Thus, right from the get-go set your inner-motor to turbo-power and your attitude to laid-back. Impossible? Well, get your priorities straight and you won’t go far wrong. On the 21st Venus enters your sign bearing her Easter basket filled with love and positive developments – oh, and a surprise or two. While there is a chance of an unexpected romantic proposal it won’t take much to flip a previously stable alliance into free-fall. Take a deep breath and smell those fragrant blossoms.

Energy:
• Gas Prices:
The high gasoline prices are now costing the U.S. consumers about $360 million more per day at the pump than a year ago. According to AAA, six states now have gasoline prices above $4 a gallon, which is considered the price tolerance threshold for consumer behavior change. Read more
• Electricity Use:While most home appliances have become more efficient over the past 30 years, the average U.S. household uses many more consumer electronics — in particular, personal computers, televisions and related devices.

Markets:The Dow took a hiccup for the worse this week as the market absorbed the news from S&P regarding the United States' debt rating. Despite the downgrade Tuesday by Standard & Poor's, the Dow remained above 12,000, and bounced back quite handily on Wednesday. Meanwhile, commodities continued to make record-breaking gains. Gold broke into $1500 an ounce this week, and oil continues to remain well over $100 a barrel. Wheat and Corn show no sign of paring their gains of this year.

Oi.

National gas prices broke the three-dollar barrier this week, with average prices in Virginia holding just below that. Across the Commonwealth, price increases have been most extreme, over $0.50 increase per gallon in the last year, in Roanoke and the Newport News / Virginia Beach areas, but all areas are now just below three dollars a gallon, with Charlottesville and Richmond, traditionally the highest priced places to purchase gas in Virginia, holding below the three-dollar barrier.

I haven't purchased meat in a goodly while, and I was nearly rocked out of my seat to find that ground beef is coming in nearly $4 a pound for chuck. I mean, really?